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Why you should doubt the Maguindanao election results - 3

Posted by: Alecks P. Pabico | July 10, 2007 at 11:08 am
Filed under: 2007 Elections, In the News

ELECTION returns from 36 of 55 precincts in Pagalungan town in Maguindanao all the more cast doubt on the credibility of election results as reflected in the provincial certificate of canvass (CoC) heralding an incredible 12-0 sweep of the senatorial contest in favor of administration candidates.

The Pagalungan ERs, mysteriously set aside and left uncanvassed until only last Friday, show that all 37 senatorial bets did garner votes, contrary to the results in the provincial CoC submitted by provincial supervisor Lintang Bedol where 18 candidates received “statistically improbable” zero votes.

As far as voting pattern went, the Pagalungan voting results also more closely reflect the outcome of elections in the five other provinces of the Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao, with Team Unity’s Jamalul Kiram topping the field with 2,732 votes. Kiram also led the senatorial race in Lanao del Sur, Sulu and Tawi-Tawi while placing a strong second in Basilan and Shariff Kabunsuan.

VOTES OBTAINED BY TOP 12 SENATORIAL CANDIDATES IN PAGALUNGAN
CANDIDATE
VOTES OBTAINED
RANK
KIRAM, Jamalul
2,732
1
TRILLANES, Antonio IV
1,911
2
MONTANO, Cesar
1,511
3
ESCUDERO, Francis Joseph
1,448
4
HONASAN, Gregorio
1,370
5
ANGARA, Edgardo
1,267
6
ZUBIRI, Juan Miguel
1,216
7
LACSON, Panfilo
1,214
8
CAYETANO, Alan Peter
1,202
9
PANGILINAN, Francis
1,131
10
AQUINO, Benigno Simeon III
1,067
11
VILLAR, Manuel Jr.
1,081
12

In the Pagalungan tally, TU’s Juan Miguel Zubiri was in seventh place, which is somehow consistent with his showing in the other ARMM provincial results: fourth in Lanao del Sur, fifth in Shariff Kabunsuan, sixth in Sulu, eighth in Basilan, and 11th in Tawi-Tawi. This only serves to further cast the three-term Bukidnon congressman’s first-place finish in the Maguindanao CoC, obtaining almost 100 percent of the votes cast, in a really suspicious light.

For obvious reasons, Zubiri’s lawyer, George Garcia, tries to paint it differently, arguing that the former Bukidnon representative’s lead in Pagalungan is the reflection of the election results in other areas in Maguindanao. “It only strengthens our claim that Maguindanao is an administration bailiwick,” he said, adding that Pagalungan is the “best indication” that no irregularities took place in Maguindanao.

VOTES OBTAINED BY THE REST OF THE SENATORIAL CANDIDATES
IN PAGALUNGAN
CANDIDATE
VOTES OBTAINED
RANK
ARROYO, Joker
1,064
13
LEGARDA, Loren
953
14
RECTO, Ralph
917
15
DEFENSOR, Michael
819
16
SOTTO, Vicente III
800
17
MAGSAYSAY, Vicente
751
18
PICHAY, Prospero Jr.
749
19
PIMENTEL, Aquilino III
740
20
SINGSON, Luis Jr.
735
21
ORETA, Teresa
697
22
ROCO, Sonia
506
23
COSETENG, Anna Dominique
505
24
OSMEÑA, John Henry
296
25
GOMEZ, Richard
170
26
BAUTISTA, Martin
143
27
WOOD, Victor
128
28
CHAVEZ, Melchor
112
29
SISON, Adrian
107
30
CAYETANO, Joselito
104
31
CANTAL, Felix
79
32
LOZANO, Oliver
61
33
PAREDES, Zosimo Jesus II
51
34
ESTRELLA, Antonio
49
35
ENCISO, Ruben
46
36
ORPILLA, Eduardo
18
37

But if that were the case, then the other towns in Maguindanao would not have zero votes for non-administration candidates as Bedol insists, though Zubiri’s lawyer would have people believe that zero votes are probable because the province is an administration stronghold. The other ARMM provinces are supposed administration bailiwicks too but the voting results there did not have zero votes for the 18 opposition and independent candidates.

The Pagalungan results even tend to debunk the claim that the province is an administration bailiwick since six Genuine Opposition and two independent candidates landed in the Magic 12 as against only four from the administration.

While Zubiri ranked higher than his bitter rival for the 12th and last Senate seat, GO’s Aquilino Pimentel III, in ARMM, his vote-margin in each of the provinces, except in Lanao del Sur (where Pimentel had a lead of over 7,000 votes over Zubiri), was not as huge as purported in the Maguindanao CoC.

The Pagalungan ERs could, in fact, be a better indicator of Zubiri’s lead over Pimentel in the Muslim Mindanao region as he only had 476 votes more than the opposition bet. Zubiri’s widest lead over Pimentel in ARMM was in Shariff Kabunsuan at over 30,000 votes, followed by over 15,000 votes in Sulu, close to 12,000 votes in Basilan, and almost 8,500 votes in Tawi-Tawi. That lead, however, still proved short to overcome Pimentel’s lead of over 110,000 votes in the national tally.

So if it weren’t a catch-up measure, how could Zubiri have led Pimentel by almost 130,000 votes in Maguindanao, whose CoC was the last from ARMM to be canvassed by the national board of canvassers?

Then, there’s the issue of incredibly high voter turnouts. The turnout in the recently canvassed results in Pagalungan’s 36 precincts at 85 percent (or 5,988 votes cast out of the total number of registered voters of 7,013), though high, is a more statistically probable outcome compared to the unusually high voter turnout in almost all Maguindanao towns. Registering the highest turnouts were Shariff Aguak (99.29), Datu Piang (99.28 percent), Mangundadatu (99.12), and Talayan (99.06 percent), while 16 other towns had turnouts no lower than 92 percent.

Interestingly, Pagalungan and South Upi (77 percent) were the only towns that did not have voter turnouts above 90-percent.



9 people have left comments

[...] The top stories: Migz beats Koko in Bogo by 8,222, to lift lead by 9,784, with reference made to the votes from Pagalungann. PCIJ’s Why You Should Doubt the Maguindanao Election Results, 3 points out the following: …returns from 36 of 55 precincts in Pagalungan town in Maguindanao all the more cast doubt on the credibility of election results as reflected in the provincial certificate of canvass (CoC) heralding an incredible 12-0 sweep of the senatorial contest in favor of administration candidates. [...]

Manuel L. Quezon III: The Daily Dose » Blog Archive » Prisoner’s dilemma in the Senate wrote on July 10, 2007 - 12:56 pm | Visit Link

Wow.

johnmarzan wrote on July 10, 2007 - 4:35 pm | Visit Link

These voting results in Pagalungan ascertain the statement made by atty. De Lima regarding the MCoC’s that the Documents may be authentic but the entries are not.

The above ER results appear credible having Kiram leading all the senatoriables in his own turf while nobody got zero votes. And this is just for 1 town. The correct trend is shown in those 5 towns mentioned. Now, if they can only open all the ballot boxes in Maguindanao, the real evidence can be found inside those boxes.

It’s true, there has never been any election in the past without any cheating. Ang kaibahan lang, subrang garapal ngayon sa panahon ni Gloria dahil ang ginagamit ay ang mismong Comelec sa pamumuno ni Abalos.

jr_lad wrote on July 10, 2007 - 7:15 pm | Visit Link

Amazing election results in Maguindanao happened in 2004 Presidential Elections, 2005 ARMM Elections and again in 2007 Senatorial Elections. Credit them to Arroyo, Abalos, and Ampatuan.

ChoIo wrote on July 11, 2007 - 8:12 am | Visit Link

double wow.

baycas wrote on July 11, 2007 - 7:47 pm | Visit Link

[...] Aside from the statistically improbable votes, anomalous voting pattern, and the election results from the town of Pagalungan, Verzola says that the Maguindanao CoC contains some “statistically impossible” numbers when it comes to the ballot fill-up rate. [...]

INSIDE PCIJ » Why you should doubt the Maguindanao election results - 4 wrote on July 12, 2007 - 6:50 pm | Visit Link

[...] was manufactured. (See the PCIJ series Why you should doubt the Maguindanao election results 1, 2, 3, 4, and [...]

INSIDE PCIJ » Will Koko suffer his father’s fate? wrote on July 31, 2007 - 8:13 pm | Visit Link

[...] the 12-0 shutout win of Team Unity candidates (see the PCIJ series on the Maguindanao results: 1, 2, 3, 4 and [...]

INSIDE PCIJ » Bedol punishment seen as ‘insufficient’ wrote on August 7, 2007 - 10:36 pm | Visit Link

[...] out Placeholder on the senatorial results for Maguindanao in 2007. There’s Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, Part 4 and Part 5 of PCIJ’s “Why you should doubt the Maguindanao electoral [...]

Mass murder in Maguindanao : Manuel L. Quezon III: The Daily Dose wrote on November 25, 2009 - 5:27 pm | Visit Link

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