AND SO the shocker of election day (and in the days of counting that followed) was the revelation that so-called Palace bailiwicks were non-existent. By June 4, a GMANews.tv report was citing a Malacañang statement that said TU bets had “emerged unopposed in 34 towns, including 17 towns in Maguindanao, and 17 others in the Visayan provinces of Cebu, Bohol, Northern Samar and Eastern Samar and in the Mindanao provinces of Lanao del Norte, Misamis Occidental, Sulu, and Zamboanga Sibugay.”

This is a far cry from the administration’s relentless optimism prior to, and in the wake of, the polls. Entire regions had been expected to deliver votes to the administration. Then it became entire provinces, and finally, as of the most recent reckoning, it’s a mere 34 towns. The scale of the administration rout, in national terms, can be gleaned from the diminished claims of where the administration obtained its vaunted 12-0 Senate votes. Just as the machinery had collapsed spectacularly for President Ferdinand Marcos in 1986, for Ramon Mitra Jr. in 1992, and Jose de Venecia in 1998, it also did so now.

It’s possible that the administration, fixated on governors and congressmen over the past years, forgot that the national vote was now a highly urban vote. The majority of the Philippine population now resides in urban areas, which means that people are more likely to vote in a similar manner, when it comes to national issues, as Metro Manila. While the basis of political power in the provinces may still hark back to traditional rural relationships, this is less the case in urban areas. A situation where an administration clashes with local leadership might resonate strongly with similar urban areas: Malacañang versus Makati City or the Palace versus Naga City would reinforce not only each other, but the anti-administration sentiments of those casting their votes for senators.

Media and the public also combined to resist fraud in the periphery: the Mindanao vote in particular unraveled in terms of certain areas (such as the ARMM) being easy targets for manipulation. Maguindanao was only the most stunning example of electoral shenanigans being exposed — and exposed to the extent that the province’s votes were taken out of play at a time when the administration needed to give the impression of a regional bandwagon for its slate. A combination of Namfrel, PPCRV, and Lente obstinacy prevented the Maguindanao and later, Lanao del Sur, elections from simply being tabulated; vigilance in other parts of Mindanao also led to such intense public and media pressure that the administration slate simply ran out of places to eke out a victory.

There is also enough anecdotal evidence to suggest that in many places, schoolteachers simply refused to participate in fraud. The most interesting theory concerning this might account, for example, to the stronger-than-expected showing of Allan Peter Cayetano. There may have been a significant number of schoolteachers who found the Comelec’s conflicting orders concerning the crediting of his votes too offensive to implement. The depths of public antipathy toward the president were also demonstrated by the strong (and unexpectedly so, even to his supporters) showing of Trillanes, and the Pulse Asia Exit Poll’s findings of a 6-4-2 final result. With the recent capitulation of Team Unity’s Mike Defensor and Ralph Recto, the best the administration can hope to achieve is a 7-3-2 result, though the counting has remained remarkably consistent at 8-2-2.

IN THE end the House race, taken as a whole, did result in a big victory for the ruling coalition. But it was a mixed victory: 94 Lakas and 46 Kampi won overall; 26 seats went to the Nationalist People’s Coalition or NPC (generally in alliance with the administration). The party affiliations remain fluid, though: a Sun-Star report on May 30 placed the results at 92 for Lakas and 65 for Kampi! The opposition in its various manifestations thus garnered anywhere from 20 to 40 seats.

Executive Secretary Eduardo Ermita claims the administration has 209 out of 230 seats. Whatever the eventual realignments within the ruling coalition, it did have a showing far better than those of administrations in 1987, or even 1992 and1998. But it’s debatable if the results represent a substantial improvement for the coalition compared to previous contests under the president’s watch in 2001 and 2004.

Of the House district contests that had Lakas candidates locked in battle against rivals from Kampi, nine ended up with neither party winning. Lakas did clinch the lion’s share of the seats over which it fought against Kampi: 33 of 56 (59 percent). Kampi took 14 (25 percent). These figures, however, can only hint at the political momentum, and resources, squandered in such intramurals. They were so extreme as to suggest that they may eventually prove unprecedented. (See Table 3)

Table 3. House Races Contested Between Lakas and Kampi courtesy of PCIJ research Seats occupied (partial): 220 Districts contested by Lakas vs. Kampi: 56 (25% of 220 seats) Lakas victories: 33, or approximately 59% of 56 Kampi victories: 14, or approximately 25% of 56 Districts where neither won: 9, or approximately 16% of 56
NUMBER	PROVINCE/CITY	DISTRICT	LAKAS	KAMPI	WINNER	PARTY
1	Agusan del Norte	1	AQUINO, Jose III	JIMENEZ, Angelo	AQUINO, Jose III	Lakas
2	Agusan del Norte	2	PLAZA, Democrito Alberto III	AMANTE, Edelmiro	AMANTE, Edelmiro	Kampi
3	Batangas	2	CABIGAO, Orestas	MENDOZA, Edgar	MANDANAS, Hermilando I.	LP
4	Batangas	3	REYES, Victoria H.	COLLANTES, Nelson	REYES, Victoria H.	Lakas
5	Bohol	3	JALA, Adam Relson	BALITE, Dionisio	JALA, Adam Relson	Lakas
6	Bulacan	1	SY-ALVARADO, Victoria	OPLE, Felix	SY-ALVARADO, Victoria	Lakas
7	Bulacan	2	PANCHO, Pedro M.	CRUZ, Ambrosio Jr.	PANCHO, Pedro M.	Lakas
8	Bulacan	4	NICOLAS, Reylina G.	PLEYTO, Salvador	NICOLAS, Reylina G.	Lakas
9	Bulacan, San Jose del Monte City	Lone	BARTOLOME, Felipe	ROBES, Arturo	BARTOLOME, Felipe	Lakas
10	Caloocan City	2	BAGUS, Tolentino	DIVINA, Nilo	CAJAYON, Mary Mitzi	LP
11	Camarines Sur	4	BELZA, Diones	ALFELOR, Felix Jr. R.	ALFELOR, Felix Jr. R.	Kampi
12	Capiz	2	CASTRO, Fredenil H.	BULILAN, Ernesto	CASTRO, Fredenil H.	Lakas
13	Cebu	2	KINTANAR, Carmiano (Lakas-NPC)	GARCIA, Pablo	GARCIA, Pablo	Kampi
14	Cebu	3	YAPHA, Estrella	GARCIA, Pablo John	GARCIA, Pablo John	Kampi
15	Cebu	4	MARTINEZ, Celestino III	SALIMBANGON, Benhur	SALIMBANGON, Benhur	Kampi
16	Cebu	6	QUISUMBING, Gabriel	SOON-RUIZ, Nerissa Corazon	SOON-RUIZ, Nerissa Corazon	Kampi
17	Compostela Valley	2	AMATONG, Rommel	CABALLERO, Jose	AMATONG, Rommel	Lakas
18	Davao del Norte	2	LAGDAMEO, Antonio	STA. ANA, Rolando	LAGDAMEO, Antonio	Lakas
19	Davao Oriental	1	PALMA-GIL, Maria Sophia	DAYANGHIRANG, Nelson	DAYANGHIRANG, Nelson	Kampi
20	Guimaras	Lone	ESPINOSA, Edgar T.	NAVA, Joaquin Carlos Rahman	NAVA, Joaquin Carlos Rahman	Kampi
21	Iloilo	4	BIRON, Ferjenel G.	DISTURA, Rolando	BIRON, Ferjenel G.	Lakas
22	La Union	1	ORTEGA, Victor	MAGSAYSAY, Milagros	ORTEGA, Victor	Lakas
23	La Union	2	EUFRANIO, Eriguel	DUMPIT, Thomas Jr.	DUMPIT, Thomas Jr.	Kampi
24	Laguna	3	AQUINO, Florante	ALAVA, Adoracion; VELASCO, Enrico	ARAGO, Evita	LP
25	Lanao del Norte	1	DIMAPORO, Imelda	BACAREZA, Angelique	BELMONTE, Vicente	UNO
26	Lanao del Norte	2	BALINDONG, Pangalian	LANTON, Makabangkit	BALINDONG, Pangalian	Lakas
27	Leyte	4	CODILLA, Eufrocino Sr. M.	CODILLA, Eufrocino Jr.	CODILLA, Eufrocino Sr. M.	Lakas
28	Marikina City	1	TEODORO, Marcelino	PAZ, Eva	TEODORO, Marcelino	Lakas
29	Masbate	2	KHO, Antonio	ESPINOSA, Maria Lourdes Lilia	KHO, Antonio	Lakas
30	Misamis Oriental	1	LAGBAS, Danilo	PADERANGA, Michael	LAGBAS, Danilo	Lakas
31	Negros Oriental	1	SY-LIMKAICHONG, Jose	PARAS, Olivia	SY-LIMKAICHONG, Jose	Lakas
32	North Cotabato	1	TAN, Luzviminda	TALIÑO-SANTOS, Emmylou J.	TALIÑO-SANTOS, Emmylou J.	Kampi
33	North Cotabato	2	ANDOLANA, Gregorio; PIÑOL, Bernardo Jr.	JUBILAN, Solema	PIÑOL, Bernardo Jr.	Lakas
34	Northern Samar	2	VICENCIO, Cesar	ONG, Emil	ONG, Emil	Kampi
35	Nueva Ecija	2	VIOLAGO, Joseph Gilbert	FELIMON, Jose	VIOLAGO, Joseph Gilbert	Lakas
36	Nueva Ecija	3	UMALI, Czarina	CHUA, Voltaire	UMALI, Czarina	Lakas
37	Nueva Ecija	4	PADIERNOS, Gay	ANTONINO, Rodolfo W.	ANTONINO, Rodolfo W.	Kampi
38	Pangasinan	2	AGBAYANI, Victor	BENGZON, Jose III	AGBAYANI, Victor	Lakas
39	Pangasinan	3	ARENAS, Ma. Rachel	TULAGAN, Generoso Jr.	ARENAS, Ma. Rachel	Lakas
40	Pasay	Lone	SANTOS, Ricardo	PANALIGAN, Allan	ROXAS, Jose Antonio	PDP-UNO
41	Quezon	1	PASAMBA, Eladio	ENVERGA, Mark	ENVERGA, Mark	Kampi
42	Quezon City	2	SUSANO, Mary Ann L.	MATHAY, Ismael III	SUSANO, Mary Ann L.	Lakas
43	Rizal	2	GARCIANO, Dionisio	RIVERA, Rolando	RODRIGUEZ, Adelina	NPC
44	Romblon	Lone	MADRONA, Eleandro	RIVERA, Rolando	MADRONA, Eleandro	Lakas
45	Sorsogon	1	DURAN, Jose Vicente	BANARES, Jerry	ESCUDERO, Salvador III	UNO
46	Sulu	1	JIKIRI, Yusoph	ABDURAHMAN, Jamasali; JADJULIE, Jupakkal; LOONG, Tupay	JIKIRI, Yusoph	Lakas
47	Sulu	2	ARBISON, Abdulmunir M.	CALUANG, Al-Hussein	ARBISON, Abdulmunir M.	Lakas
48	Surigao del Norte	2	BARBERS, Robert Lyndon	ANDANAR, Wencelito	ROMARATE, Guillermo Jr.	Partido Padajon Surigao
49	Taguig City	2	DUEÑAS, Henry	REYES, Angelito	DUEÑAS, Henry	Lakas
50	Tarlac	2	YAP, Jose	TABAMO, Guillermina	YAP, Jose	Lakas
51	Tarlac	3	LAPUS, Jeci	AQUINO, Herminio	LAPUS, Jeci	Lakas
52	Tawi-Tawi	Lone	JAAFAR, Nur	ABUBAKAR, Anuar	JAAFAR, Nur	Lakas
53	Western Samar	2	FIGUEROA, Catalino	TAN, Sharee Ann	TAN, Sharee Ann	Kampi
54	Zamboanga del Norte	2	LABAD-LABAD, Rosendo	RANILLO, Matias	LABAD-LABAD, Rosendo	Lakas
55	Zamboanga Sibugay	1	CABILAO, Belma A.	PABLO, Ferdinand	CABILAO, Belma A.	Lakas
56	Zamboanga Sibugay	2	RAMBUYONG, Richard	HOFER, Dulce Ann (Kampi-LDP)	HOFER, Dulce Ann	Kampi-LDP
57	Shariff Kabunsuan	Lone	SEMA, Bai Sandra	DILANGALEN, Didagen	DILANGALEN, Didagen	PMP

The senatorial results, whether pegged at 6-4-2, 7-3-2, or 8-2-2, are simply unprecedented for a sitting administration since the bicameral system was reestablished in 1987. They are on the scale of the two biggest repudiations endured by a sitting administration in senatorial elections: while not a total defeat on the scale of the Quirino Liberal Party (LP) slate in 1951, the 2007 results approximates the debacle experienced by Marcos’s midterm Nacionalista Party (NP) slate in 1971. In 1961 the NP, and in 1965 the LP, did as badly, but those were also years in which the NP and LP administrations, respectively, lost the presidency.

It can even be argued that the two administration candidates who secured a comfortable victory — Joker Arroyo and Angara (who, while veteran legislators, have never been known as partisans of the administration) — won despite, and not because of, their Palace affiliation. Known partisans of the president did poorly, such as Defensor and Congressman Prospero Pichay, though not as miserably as the likes of Ilocos Sur Governor Luis ‘Chavit’ Singson, whose pro-provinces platform failed to resonate.

On the whole, after the extremes the country has oscillated between since 2000-2001, the country expressed itself firmly in favor of the familiar. The parameters couldn’t be clearer, and they firmly hem in Arroyo, who can labor to redeem herself by means of economic performance, but who would be playing with fire if she revives charter change. The country has already been planning for the post-Arroyo years, which actually begin in a year or at most two, when the 2010 presidential campaign starts in earnest.

The 2007 elections did prove, however, that even in a midterm election in which the public isn’t deeply engaged, the country’s institutions were hard-pressed to conduct a credible election. The recent round of polls was barely credible. And there is little sign an administration that gave up all its previous chances to implement serious electoral reform will do so in its remaining years. Which means, if this election was chaotic, expensive, and costly in terms of lives and institutional reputations, 2010 promises to be a lot worse.

Manuel L. Quezon III is a columnist and contributing editor of the Philippine Daily Inquirer, and hosts a weekly show, “The Explainer,” on ANC.