Some educators see an integration of traditional and online basic education by 2015. [photo courtesy of the Fund for Assistance to Private Education]

FOR SURE, technological advances will loom large in almost — if not all — aspects of our lives a decade from now. In our introductory computer course in 1983, my friends and I had waited impatiently as the technician painstakingly ran our cardboard punch-outs — each the size of regular bond paper — through the machine that occupied a third of the room. Imagine our relief when after 20 minutes, the programmed square roots of several 7-digit numbers did appear.

Today our techie friends proudly display yet another slim cell phone that can extract cube roots (and convert currencies, record concerts, extract emails, among other things). They are initially greeted by polite murmurs of approbation, but soon conversation shifts to other wares — even more portable, elegant, and multifunctional — slated to be on the market in the coming months.

In 2015, just before we turn 50, my batchmates and I will converse through nanophones dangling from necklaces. Those of us with deteriorating senses will opt for hearing aid-phones embedded in our ears. We will be able to conduct business anywhere, as with the click of an electronic pen, infrared keyboards (in several scripts) will appear on any surface. Best of all, we will be able to guarantee that every batchmate — at least those who are still alive — can join in our reunions. Friends on other shores can opt for traditional videoconference, or go cutting-edge with holographic imagery.

In Star Trek, my favorite sci-fi TV series (I once taught a standing-room-only course on its philosophy, physics, and mathematics), Federation cadets graph timelines with a push of a button, compute for warp-space velocities with the aid of robots, play musical synthesizers translatable into machine and verbal language, and undergo training in holo-deck simulators indistinguishable from the real environment. The cadets cannot imagine a world without technology, just as children today cannot conceive what rotary-dial phones are for. My six-year-old son observes with incredulity, "How can you text on this phone, Mommy?"

Though it is impossible for our world in 2015 to be as advanced as Star Trek in every aspect, it is safe to say that specific advances may be possible. For instance, those cool silver needle-less injections Trek doctors wield with such dexterity are already in the prototype stage today-though I believe no one will ever be able to find a cure for the common cold. Computers will become more powerful, electronic devices more integrated, and data dissemination a whole lot faster.

But human (and alien) teachers and mentors play key roles in Star Trek, and they (at least human ones) will continue to be irreplaceable in 2015. Technology is an invaluable aid, but because of our evolutionary history, nothing can replace group interaction, human expertise, and the role of affect in the learning process. Although technological advances will revolutionize traditional teaching, these will not replace it. Various studies conducted on the effects of online learning, for instance, show only mixed results at best.

In the 2001 book Oversold and Underused: Computers in the Classroom, educator Larry Cuban finds that even with the ready availability of computers in school, students and teachers use them more at home, with fewer than five percent of teachers integrating computers into their regular class routines. He also discovers that as teachers gain technical expertise, they do not necessarily change the way they teach, and most disturbing of all, there exists "no clear evidence of increased student achievement as a result of using information technology."

The basis of Cuban's conclusions is his scrutiny of a preschool, two high schools, and a university (Stanford University) in Silicon Valley, where computer technology has long been a staple of classroom learning. In its heyday, Silicon Valley was touted as the community of the future.

Though Cuban believes that with active teacher involvement in software design, many of the problems with IT-aided teaching can be minimized, he finishes by strongly recommending that professional development for teachers (in areas other than computer learning) be given as much-if not more-focus.

Nebres concurs: "We love simplistic solutions, but often they do not work. In education the fad now here is also to give computers to every school. The problems of teacher training and lack of electricity aside, small children cannot learn through computers alone. How will they know what to focus on? There is too much data-which are the significant ones? Constant guidance from adults is still as important, and in today's age, it is perhaps even more important than ever."

	Reforms in public-school education have meant more textbooks and a revised curriculum for students. [photo by Jose Enrique Soriano]

MOST LIKELY then, in basic education (grade school and high school) in 2015, teachers will still use mainly chalk, books, and blackboards in the classrooms, although they will also increasingly use white boards, Power Point, and Internet resources.

But Nebres is quick to add that the situation will be different for higher education, especially postgraduate courses. "For master's and professional subjects, such as MBAs or computer short courses, online learning will most likely exponentially increase in the next 10 years," he says. "E-learning works for adult education. First, people at this level are self-motivated. They take these courses to garner promotion, make themselves marketable, or simply to satisfy their need to learn. Second, they know what to expect and what to focus on. Third, they can take these courses in their own place and at their own time. The major advantage of e-learning is convenience."

De La Salle's Cruz, meanwhile, sees an integration of traditional and online basic education in 2015. "At present population rates, around say two million children born every year, there will not be enough land area to build schools to accommodate everyone in a mere 10 years," he observes. "Of course schools can be built in rural areas, but then infrastructure such as roads and communication links will have to be constructed, too, and all these are physically impossible to complete within the allotted time span. So we are left with schools in the cities and perhaps congested suburbs. Add to this the fact that doing all these requires a substantial amount of money, which our government does not have. In a few years the foreign debt issue will again crop up. With all these problems, how will we cope?

"Since there will not be enough buildings and teachers," continues Cruz, "then to serve as many students as possible, we will have to lessen school hours, their presence in the classroom. (This is already the situation today in many public schools that schedule morning and afternoon student shifts.) But obviously a decrease in class face-time is not good for learning-unless a compromise can be made. After say, three or four hours in school, students go home and continue their work online."

Assignments, projects, and reports can all be done at home or even in malls, the same way adults conduct business in Wi-Fi areas straight from their laptops. Online technology will be as ubiquitous as cell phones are now, and within reach of all sectors of society. (Today, 82 percent of public high schools supposedly have computers, though most are not yet linked to the Net.)

Cruz foresees minimal problems with speed and access, "but teachers should be trained en masse to utilize such technology." And that, he says, should start now.